I finally found a great resource for tracking state by state trends to better understand which are successfully “flattening the curve” and which are not.
The site is called 91-DIVOC and is updated several times per day with 4 charts:
- Cases by Country
- Cases by US State
- Cases by Country, Normalized by Population
- Cases by State, Normalized by Population
In each of the 4 charts, you can toggle to view any of 5 metrics: active cases, confirmed cases, new cases / day, deaths, and recoveries. You can also jump between linear and log scales.
There are the typical caveats that the charts are only as good as the data quality, and data quality varies significantly based on country/state reporting practices and differences in testing.
But putting that aside, this to me is the simplest and easiest way to determine what’s actually going on throughout the US. Here’s Massachusetts highlighted, looking at active cases by state on a log scale:
Another resource – The COVID Tracking Project – appears to be making good progress at providing clean data across all states, and rating states on their data quality to encourage best practices and consistency. Here’s an example, Massachusetts gets a ‘B’:
It’s encouraging to see that testing capacity is showing signs on improving. A week ago the US was doing 30-40k/day, while the past few days it’s been around 100k/day. I suspect we’ll need to exceed 1m+/day and include many people who are asymptomatic to really get a handle on community spread. While a bit late, at least things appear to be moving in that direction.